41⟩ Tell me do you keep track of how often the weather turns out how you forecast it?
I keep a daily log of all my forecasts. I've got a specific goal in mind in what I want to get.
“Meteorologist Frequently Asked Questions in various Meteorologist job interviews by interviewer. The set of questions are here to ensures that you offer a perfect answer posed to you. So get preparation for your new job interview”
I keep a daily log of all my forecasts. I've got a specific goal in mind in what I want to get.
That we have people that do our hair and makeup for us!
Winter is harder because there's just so many variables that go into winter weather.
There are primarily two education backgrounds among people that do weather on television. “Meteorologists” typically have at least a B.S. degree in Meteorology or Atmospheric Science while some television weather casters have a journalism or communications degree.
On a clear day when it's really simple, you can put one together in 30-40 minutes. On a day like today (hot and humid), you can be looking at things for hours. If I know there's a big event coming, I'll spend three or four hours a day easy looking at it before I get to work.
For a cyclone to form several preconditions must be met:
☛ Warm ocean waters (of at least 26.5°C) throughout a sufficient depth (unknown how deep, but at least on the order of 50 m). Warm waters are necessary to fuel the heat engine of the tropical cyclone.
☛ An atmosphere which cools fast enough with height (is "unstable" enough) such that it encourages thunderstorm activity. It is the thunderstorm activity which allows the heat stored in the ocean waters to be liberated for the tropical cyclone development.
☛ Relatively moist layers near the mid-troposphere (5 km). Dry mid levels are not conducive for allowing the continuing development of widespread thunderstorm activity.
☛ A minimum distance of around 500 km from the equator. Some of the earth's spin (Coriolis force) is needed to maintain the low pressure of the system. (Systems can form closer to the equator but it's a rare event)
☛ A pre-existing disturbance near the surface with sufficient spin (vorticity) and inflow (convergence). Tropical cyclones cannot be generated spontaneously. To develop, they require a weakly organised system with sizeable spin and low level inflow.
☛ Little change in the wind with height (low vertical wind shear, i.e. less than 40 km/h from surface to tropopause). Large values of wind shear tend to disrupt the organisation of the thunderstorms that are important to the inner part of a cyclone.
Having these conditions met is necessary, but not sufficient as many disturbances that appear to have favourable conditions do not develop.
Information about the likelihood of it being hotter/cooler or wetter/drier than normal can sometimes be calculated using seasonal forecasting techniques. The techniques tend to be most reliable for other parts of the world than the UK - in the tropics especially over the oceans.
The severity of a tropical cyclone is described in terms of categories ranging from 1 (weakest) to 5 (strongest) related to the maximum mean wind speed as shown in this table.
Note: corresponding approximate wind gusts and central pressure are also provided as a guide. Stronger gusts may be observed over hilltops, in gullies and around structures.
The Bureau of Meteorology uses a 10 minute averaging time for reporting the sustained (i.e. relatively long-lasting) winds. The maximum sustained wind are the highest 10 minute surface winds occurring within the circulation of the cyclone. These surface winds are those observed (or, more often, estimated) to occur at the standard meteorological height of 10 m having an unobstructed exposure.
Gusts are a wind peak lasting for just a few seconds. Typically, in a cyclone environment the value for a peak gust is about 25 % higher than a 10 minute sustained wind. Barrow Island and Mardie sustained wind and wind gust profile during TC Monty (2004).
While both tropical cyclones and tornadoes are atmospheric vortices, they have little in common. Tornadoes have diameters on the scale of hundreds of metres and are usually produced from a single thunderstorm. A tropical cyclone, however, has a diameter on the scale of hundreds of kilometres and contains many thunderstorms. Tornadoes are primarily an over-land phenomena as solar heating of the land surface usually contributes toward the development of the thunderstorm that spawns the vortex (though over-water tornadoes have occurred). In contrast, tropical cyclones are purely an oceanic phenomena - they die out over-land due to a loss of a moisture source. Lastly, tropical cyclones have a lifetime that is measured in days, while tornadoes typically last on the scale of minutes.
There are so many facets to being a television meteorologist and the pace of the newsroom so fast, that they days just fly by!
The weather is different everyday, weather is the only part of a newscast that affects every person watching and I like being able to help people. This help can take several forms. From providing information to help viewers plan (what to wear, what to do for recreation, when to travel) or to keep families safe (from hail and tornadoes to icy roads and whiteouts) I need to be on my “A” game every day.
The pressure I get I put on myself. I don't get pressure from my bosses, and I don't get pressure from viewers. It's a pride thing.
In November it'll be 8 years.
Tropical cyclones have a distinct life cycle. For cyclones that reach at least severe (category 3 or higher having wind gusts of at least 165 km/h) the life-cycle may be divided into four stages. For non-severe cyclones, their development is constrained by one or more of a number of factors such as being located in an unfavourable atmospheric environment, movement over cooler water or making landfall.
1. The formative stage
On satellite images the disturbance appears as an unusually active, but poorly organised, area of convection (thunderstorms). The circulation centre is usually ill-defined but sometimes curved cumulus cloud bands spiralling towards an active area of thunderstorms indicate the location of the centre. Initially the amount of convection near the centre is dependent upon the normal diurnal cycle of tropical convection, increasing overnight and subsiding during the day. As development occurs the convection persists throughout the day. The strongest surface winds may be well removed from the centre, tend to occur in disorganised squalls and are often confined to one quadrant, for example the northwesterly monsoon winds to the north of the centre. Apart from local squalls the maximum wind is usually less than gale force. When formative stage tropical cyclones move inland they produce little or no damage on landfall but are often associated with heavy rain and sometimes flooding over northern Australia.
2. The immature stage
In this stage the area of convection persists and becomes more organised. Intensification occurs simultaneously. The minimum surface pressure rapidly drops below 1000 hPa and convection becomes organised into long bands spiralling inwards. Gale-force winds develop with the strengthening pressure gradient, and the maximum winds (which now may be storm-force or more) are concentrated in a tight band close to the centre. The circulation centre is well defined and subsequently an eye may begin to form. In satellite images several well organised curved bands of active convection may be seen spiralling in towards a central dense mass of clouds covering the focal point of the banding, or surrounding the centre. The eye (if it exists) may be masked by a canopy of cirrus cloud, which itself may contain curved striationsassociated with the outflow at the top of the tropical cyclone. The immature tropical cyclone can cause devastating wind and storm surge effects upon landfall, although damage is usually confined to a relatively small area. In this stage of development very rapid intensification can occur and the associated structural changes observed when the cyclone is under radar surveillance can sometimes be confusing.
3. The mature stage
During this stage the tropical cyclone acquires a quasi-steady state with only random fluctuations in central pressure and maximum wind speed. However, the cyclonic circulation and extent of the gales increase markedly. Asymmetries in the wind field may also become more pronounced. In satellite images the cloud field is highly organised and becomes more symmetrical. The more intense cyclones are characterised by a round central dense overcast containing a well-centred, distinct round eye. The surrounding convective bands are tightly coiled and quasi-circular. Typically a cyclone spends just a day or so at maximum intensity until it begins to weaken, unless the cyclone remains in a highly favourable environment.
4. The decay stage
The warm core is destroyed during this stage, the central pressure rises, and the belt of maximum wind expands away from near the centre. Decay may occur very rapidly if the system moves into an unfavourable atmospheric or geographic environment, but sometimes only the tropical characteristics are modified while the cyclonic circulation moves on to higher latitudes.
As wind speed increases the power of the wind to do damage increases exponentially. Hence a category 5 severe tropical cyclone (with wind gusts > 280 km/h) has the potential to do around 250 times the damage of a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone (with wind gusts of 165 km/h). This underscores the importance of the category system.
For historical reasons tropical cyclones are called different names in different parts of the world. The terms hurricane and typhoon are regionally specific names for a severe tropical cyclone (sustained winds of more than 118 km/h (64 knots). Hurricane is used in the North Atlantic Ocean, the Northeast Pacific Ocean east of the dateline, or the South Pacific Ocean east of 160E. Typhoon is used in the Northwest Pacific Ocean west of the dateline.
For many parts of the world a non-severe tropical cyclone is referred to as a tropical storm and assigned a name.
The term damaging winds refers to wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h. The term destructive winds refers to wind gusts in excess of 125 km/h. The term very destructive winds refers to wind gusts in excess of 165 km/h.
To a first approximation a tropical cyclone is like a heat engine - it derives its energy from the heat that is released when water vapour that has been evaporated from the ocean surface (assisted by high winds and low pressure) condenses in the middle of the atmosphere. Mid-latitude cyclones (low pressure systems associated with fronts) primarily get their energy from horizontal gradients in temperature.
Another important difference between the two is that tropical cyclones have their strongest winds near the surface while mid-latitude systems have their strongest winds many kilometres above the surface near the top of the atmosphere.
The size of a cyclone is usually described in terms of the radius of gale-force (sustained winds of at least 63 km/h). Although the distribution of surface winds is never completely symmetrical estimates of the gale-radius provide a reasonable guide on the size of a system. Cyclones off the northwest have an average radius of gales of about 150 to 200 kilometres. It is common for gales to occur well beyond the average radius of gales in one quadrant, for example the northwesterly monsoon winds to the north of the centre.